The Problem of Bias: Identity-Protective Cognition

There’s a brilliant piece by Ezra Klein on Vox that discusses the problem of “identity-protective cognition,” or reasoning in such a way as to get the facts in front of you to fit your own worldview, and its effect on politics (“How politics makes us stupid“). Yale Law professor Dan Kahan explains, “As a way of avoiding dissonance and estrangement from valued groups, individuals subconsciously resist factual information that threatens their defining values.

What’s perhaps most frightening about identity-protective cognition is that the smarter the person, the better they are at twisting the evidence in front of them to say what they want it to say. Let me repeat: being smarter actually makes you more likely to be susceptible to identity-protective cognition when it comes to the issues you care about. For example, Kahan ran an experiment in which participants were asked to look at some (fake) numbers about crime and gun control legislation. The numbers were set up such that there was a clear mathematical answer to the problem, and when the same numbers were used in a problem about the effectiveness of a beauty product, unsurprisingly those with stronger math skills were more likely to get the right answer. However, when the word problem was about gun control, “Partisans with weak math skills were 25 percentage points likelier to get the answer right when it fit their ideology. Partisans with strong math skills were 45 percentage points likelier to get the answer right when it fit their ideology.” YIKES. 

Obviously this creates a thorny problem when it comes to an evidence-driven search for religious truth, because if there’s one thing more polarizing and more likely to make you want to stick with your “tribe” than politics, it’s got to be religion. Klein sums up the problem we’re facing:

If the work of gathering evidence and reasoning through thorny, polarizing political questions is actually the process by which we trick ourselves into finding the answers we want, then what’s the right way to search for answers? How can we know the answers we come up with, no matter how well-intentioned, aren’t just more motivated cognition? How can we know the experts we’re relying on haven’t subtly biased their answers, too? How can I know that this article isn’t a form of identity protection? Kahan’s research tells us we can’t trust our own reason. How do we reason our way out of that?

So… how do we reason our way out of that? Klein concludes, “If American politics is going to improve, it will be better structures, not better arguments, that win the day.” Maybe that’s the right answer for politics, but I’m not sure what the parallel would be for religion. When I think of “structures” in the religious world, I think of the religious institutions which are more akin to political parties, inherently preaching one view over another, than to structures that enable rational, un-biased decision-making. If anyone has any ideas for structures that could help solve the problem of bias in the examination of religion – other than a blog that attempts to look at all sides – I’m all ears. 

In the Beginning: Inflation theory

The new evidence of the universe’s rapid (that’s a gross understatement) expansion during its earliest moments has been all over the news this week. Here are the basic facts:

  • The starting point is the Big Bang theory, a widely accepted explanation for how the universe began (but not the only explanation, even among scientists)
  • There is a hypothesis that after the Big Bang, the universe went through a period of super-fast expansion know an inflation. This expansion was way, way faster than the speed of light. As you can imagine, this would leave marks.
  • Scientists believe they have found some of those marks. For a while, astronomers have predicted that gravitational ripples caused by inflation would create a swirling pattern in the polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation (light released a few hundred thousand years after the Big Bang). A telescope in Antarctica recently detected that pattern of polarization.

What does this mean? None of us was there for the beginning of the universe, so most of what we know, or believe we know, is based on hypotheses. But there are still observable facts, like the polarization detected by the telescope, assuming that’s not proven to be a statistical error (and especially if other telescopes can find similar evidence). So while this isn’t conclusive, it’s a solid piece of evidence in favor of a big bang, followed by hyperexpansion, creating our universe almost 14 billion years ago.

Further reading:
Scientific American
Science News
BBC